How Democrats Might Challenge or Invalidate a Trump Win in 202412 min read

As the 2024 presidential election looms, speculation surrounds how the Democratic Party might respond to a potential Donald Trump victory. If Trump wins the presidency again, especially via a narrow or controversial path, it’s possible Democrats will explore various methods to challenge or invalidate the result. These strategies could range from legal actions to more controversial efforts around the Electoral College or popular vote. Below, we’ll explore potential scenarios, from “lawfare” to manipulation of the vote count, and how Democrats might seek to block or delegitimize a Trump win.

1. Lawfare: The Legal Front

“Lawfare,” the strategic use of legal systems to challenge political outcomes, is a likely approach in the event of a Trump victory. Legal challenges can take many forms:

• Challenging Ballots or Electors: In the case of a close election, Democrats could contest ballots in key swing states. Allegations of voter suppression or irregularities in the election process (e.g., mail-in ballots or polling station closures) could lead to lawsuits. This type of challenge could delay certification of results or sow doubt about the legitimacy of the victory. ¹
• 14th Amendment (Section 3): Some legal scholars and Democratic figures have floated the idea of using the 14th Amendment to disqualify Trump from holding office, citing his role in the January 6th Capitol riot as “insurrection.” Several states have already seen legal challenges testing this approach, though its success is far from certain, as legal interpretations of what constitutes “insurrection” vary. ²
• Prosecutions and Legal Investigations: Ongoing criminal investigations into Trump’s business dealings, his handling of classified documents, or his role in the January 6th insurrection could create legal hurdles for his presidency. If convicted, Trump might face challenges in governance, or Democrats could push for impeachment again based on new grounds. ³
• Refusal to Certify the Election: Congressional Democrats, who are in the majority in the Senate, are not a majority in the House. They woul dhave to convince quite a few never-Trumper Republicans to make this work, but nothing is off the table with their skullduggery. ⁴
• State-Level Refusal to Enforce Federal Policies: Democratic-led states could refuse to enforce certain federal laws or directives, particularly on controversial issues like immigration, healthcare, or environmental regulations. This approach, which was prominent during Trump’s first term (e.g., sanctuary cities), could create legal battles between state and federal governments. ⁵

2. Electoral College Manipulation

The Electoral College has long been a point of controversy in American elections, particularly after Trump won in 2016 despite losing the popular vote. Democrats might seek to undermine the Electoral College system or use its quirks to their advantage:

• National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC): One major avenue is the push for the NPVIC, which aims to ensure that the presidency goes to the winner of the national popular vote. Under this agreement, states pledge their electors to the national popular vote winner once enough states join to guarantee a majority (270 electoral votes). Though not yet at full strength, this compact could be a tool for Democrats to challenge an Electoral College victory by Trump if he loses the popular vote. ⁶
• Faithless Electors: Though the Supreme Court ruled in Chiafalo v. Washington that states can punish faithless electors, Democrats could still encourage electors in states without binding laws to vote against Trump, even if he won their state’s popular vote. This tactic, while rare, could complicate the Electoral College outcome. ⁷
• Elector Coercion: In some swing states, electors could face intense public and political pressure to vote against Trump, especially if he wins the state by a small margin. While legally risky and politically contentious, this could disrupt the electoral process.

3. Popular Vote Repudiation

If Trump wins the popular vote — a less common but possible outcome — Democrats might focus on strategies to challenge or repudiate the results by highlighting potential irregularities:

• Voter Suppression Allegations: Democrats could argue that widespread voter suppression, particularly in minority-heavy districts, invalidated Trump’s popular vote win. Legal challenges could target states with restrictive voting laws (such as voter ID requirements or mail-in ballot limitations), which might have disproportionately affected Democratic-leaning voters. ^{8 9}
• Foreign Interference Claims: Investigations into potential foreign interference, reminiscent of claims in the 2016 election, could be resurrected to challenge Trump’s legitimacy. Any credible allegations of foreign hacking or disinformation campaigns might lead to demands for recounts or legal action in states where the margins were tight. Conservatives say these are just false flag operations – can Russian memes swing the election? ^{10 11}
• Media and Disinformation: Democrats might argue that Trump’s victory in the popular vote was influenced by mass disinformation on social media platforms, thereby calling the legitimacy of the result into question. Efforts could focus on tech platforms like Facebook or X (formerly Twitter), accusing them of failing to curb the spread of misinformation that swayed the vote in Trump’s favor. ^{12 13}

4. Recounts and Electoral Disputes

Another common tactic is the use of recounts to challenge the validity of close election results. Recounts provide a legal way to contest a narrow victory:

• Demanding Recounts in Swing States: Should Trump win by a slim margin in critical states like Michigan, Georgia, or Wisconsin, Democrats could request recounts. Recount demands could delay the certification of election results, sowing doubt and uncertainty about the outcome. Even minor irregularities discovered during these recounts could become the basis for further legal challenges. ¹⁴ And what’s deceptive about this is recounts without fixing what caused miscounting makes little difference, allows for illegal revision, and ignores the real need for audits and chains of custody, which are often missing. ^{15 16 17 18 19}
• Discrediting Election Integrity: If recounts uncover any irregularities — even small ones — Democrats could leverage them to argue that Trump’s victory is illegitimate. This could escalate into calls for a national investigation, especially if multiple states are involved, further delaying the process.

5. Cheating Allegations: Mail-In Ballots, Fraudulent Voting, and Machine Failures

One of the most contentious areas in recent U.S. elections has been allegations of voter fraud. If Trump wins, Democrats might focus on countering claims that widespread fraud occurred in 2024, while Republicans may argue that fraud helped Democrats in close races. Here’s a breakdown of common concerns:

• Mail-In Ballots: Allegations of fraudulent mail-in voting have been a recurrent theme in elections. Although the vast majority of mail-in ballots are legitimate, some studies suggest that mail-in voting can be vulnerable to fraud. For instance, a report from the Heritage Foundation identified instances of mail-in ballot fraud in several states, though it noted that these cases are extremely rare relative to total ballots cast.
• Machine Failures: Claims of electronic voting machine failures have been raised as potential avenues for tampering. In the 2020 election, various reports emerged about machine glitches and failures, leading to calls for increased scrutiny and transparency regarding electronic voting systems. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) stated that the 2020 election was the “most secure” in U.S. history, though skepticism remains in certain quarters. ²⁰
• Non-Citizen Voting: Allegations of non-citizen voting have been highlighted as a significant concern. Studies, such as one from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), have shown that while the rate of non-citizen voting is low, it can occur. Critics argue that the lack of strict voter ID laws may facilitate this issue.
• Double Voting: Instances of double voting, where individuals cast ballots in multiple jurisdictions, are also a point of contention. The Pew Center for the States has estimated that approximately 1.8 million individuals are registered in more than one state. While actual cases of double voting are rare, the existence of multiple registrations raises concerns about potential fraud. ^{21 22}
• Voting by the Deceased: Claims of dead individuals casting ballots have surfaced in various elections. A report from the Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF) found that thousands of deceased voters remained on the rolls in several states, raising questions about potential misuse. However, cases of actual dead voting are exceedingly rare. ²³
• Lack of ID Fraudulent Voting: Many states have enacted voter ID laws to combat potential fraud, arguing that such measures are essential for election integrity. However, critics assert that these laws disproportionately affect marginalized communities and can suppress legitimate votes. A study by the Brennan Center for Justice suggests that voter ID laws may not significantly reduce fraud rates, but they do create barriers for eligible voters. ²⁴

6. Public Distrust of the Voting Process

The ongoing debates over election security and integrity have resulted in significant public distrust in the electoral process, exacerbated by the progressive opposition to various security reforms:

• Opposition to Voter ID Laws: Many progressives argue against strict voter ID requirements, claiming they disenfranchise minority voters and those without easy access to identification. Critics of voter ID laws assert that they suppress legitimate votes, while proponents argue that they are necessary to prevent fraud. The divide has created a deep-seated distrust among some voters who feel that the absence of stringent ID laws may allow for more fraud. ²⁵
• Opposition to Voter Roll Cleanups: Efforts to regularly clean voter rolls and ensure accuracy have faced backlash from progressives, who see them as potential tactics for voter suppression. However, many states have implemented these cleanups to maintain the integrity of electoral rolls. Disputes over these efforts can lead to public skepticism about the validity of election outcomes.  ²⁶
• Ballot Harvesting and Unsolicited Mail-In Ballots: Progressive advocacy for mail-in voting and ballot harvesting has raised concerns among some voters. Critics argue that these practices open the door to potential fraud, even if studies suggest that mail-in voting is generally secure. The practice of sending unsolicited mail-in ballots has particularly fueled claims of widespread fraud, even though evidence remains limited.

This growing distrust can erode faith in the electoral process, leading to political polarization and heightened tensions. As the 2024 election approaches, how Democrats and Republicans address these issues will likely shape the narrative around election legitimacy and integrity.

7. Conclusion

In conclusion, the potential for a contested election in 2024 raises significant concerns about how political parties might respond to the outcomes. From legal maneuvers and electoral manipulation to broader allegations of voter fraud, the landscape is rife with possibilities for conflict. The combination of ongoing public distrust in the electoral process and heightened partisan tensions makes it crucial for both parties to address these issues transparently and constructively. As the political landscape continues to evolve, maintaining faith in the democratic process will be essential for the future of American governance.