Trump’s “Impossible” First Term Successes6 min read

Like many tepid Trump supporters during his first term, I was worried that his approach seemed reckless, if not capricious. However, the list of “impossible” things he accomplished in his last term indicates that (a) I had a very limiting view of what is possible, and (b) I was bad at estimating risk.

I was not alone in my doubt, nor in my switch to greater Trump support, especially as compared to the behavior and outcomes of previous recent administrations.  Here is a list of significant actions taken during President Trump’s first term that were considered “impossible” or “risky” by many, along with their outcomes and  some corresponding references: ^{1 2}

1. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (2017)

• Claimed to Be Impossible/Risky: Critics argued that reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and altering individual tax brackets would primarily benefit the wealthy and significantly increase the federal deficit.
• Outcome: The economy experienced notable growth in 2018 and 2019, with unemployment reaching record lows prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The tax cuts also incentivized businesses to repatriate offshore funds, leading to increased investments. However, the federal deficit did rise.
• Reference: Trump’s Final Numbers – FactCheck.org ³

2. First Step Act (2018) – Criminal Justice Reform

• Claimed to Be Impossible/Risky: Skeptics believed that bipartisan criminal justice reform was unattainable under a Republican administration and that early prisoner releases could lead to higher crime rates.
• Outcome: The First Step Act led to sentence reductions for thousands of non-violent offenders and expanded rehabilitative programs. Recidivism rates remained stable, and the legislation received bipartisan commendation for balancing justice reform with public safety.
• Reference: Trump Administration Accomplishments – The White House ⁴

3. Deregulation Efforts

• Claimed to Be Impossible/Risky: Trump’s commitment to eliminating excessive regulations was met with concerns that it would harm the environment and compromise public safety.
• Outcome: The administration reported a 12-to-1 ratio of repealed to new regulations in 2018, reducing compliance costs for small businesses and positively influencing the stock market. Nonetheless, debates over long-term environmental impacts continue.
• Reference: Fact Sheet – The Historic Results of President Donald J. Trump’s First Two Years in Office ⁵

4. Renegotiating NAFTA – USMCA (2020)

• Claimed to Be Impossible/Risky: Many doubted that Canada and Mexico would agree to a new trade deal, and there were concerns that withdrawing from NAFTA would negatively affect the U.S. economy.
• Outcome: The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaced NAFTA, introducing stronger labor protections, increasing U.S. content requirements in automobiles, and enhancing agricultural exports to Canada. The agreement garnered bipartisan support in Congress.
• Reference: Trump Administration Accomplishments – The White House ⁴

5. Trade Agreements with China – Phase One Deal (2020)

• Claimed to Be Impossible/Risky: There were fears that imposing tariffs on China would lead to an economic downturn or a prolonged trade war.
• Outcome: China committed to increasing U.S. imports by $200 billion, including agricultural and manufacturing goods. While some tariffs remained, the deal was seen as progress in addressing trade imbalances.
• Reference: US and China sign deal to ease trade war (BBC) ⁶

6. Moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem (2018)

• Claimed to Be Impossible/Risky: Previous presidents had refrained from recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital due to concerns over potential backlash and regional instability.
• Outcome: The U.S. embassy was relocated to Jerusalem, resulting in initial protests but no prolonged regional conflict. Subsequently, several Arab nations normalized relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords.
• Reference: Why Trump Recognizing Jerusalem As The Capital Of Israel Is ‘Just and Right’ (dailywire) ⁷

7. The Abraham Accords (2020) – Middle East Peace Agreements

• Claimed to Be Impossible/Risky: It was widely believed that peace between Israel and Arab nations was unattainable without first resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• Outcome: The UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco normalized relations with Israel, establishing diplomatic ties and economic partnerships. This development was considered the most significant advancement in Arab-Israeli relations since the 1990s.
• Reference: Significance of the Accord (nextias.com) ⁸

8. Direct Diplomacy with North Korea (2018-2019)

• Claimed to Be Impossible/Risky: No sitting U.S. president had previously met with a North Korean leader, and there were concerns that such engagement could legitimize Kim Jong-un’s regime without achieving denuclearization.
• Outcome: President Trump held three meetings with Kim Jong-un, leading to a temporary halt in North Korea’s nuclear tests and missile launches. While full denuclearization was not achieved, tensions decreased compared to prior administrations.
• Reference: Friends reunited? Trump faces a very different Kim Jong Un this time (BBC) ⁹

9. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (2017)

• Claimed to Be Impossible/Risky: Critics warned that withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement would isolate the U.S. diplomatically, undermine global climate change efforts, and harm the U.S. economy by increasing energy costs.
• Outcome: The U.S. formally withdrew in 2020, which allowed the country to avoid unbalanced financial commitments and penalties related to emissions reduction goals. Despite withdrawal, the U.S. continued to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, achieving notable decreases during Trump’s term. Moreover, the withdrawal was seen by supporters as a move to prioritize American industry, particularly fossil fuel sectors, which were set to benefit from less stringent regulations. The U.S. remained an important player in global climate discussions, and the administration argued that staying in the agreement would have resulted in unjust financial burdens for American workers and businesses.
• Reference: The Paris Climate Agreement: U.S. Withdrawal and Emissions Trends – The Heritage Foundation